Anthony Watt’s and the Clue-by-Four…

When it come to the subject of Anthropogenic Global Warming, Anthony Watt’s is one of my favorite blogger’s. He has a grip on the ole Scientific Clue-by-Four that even baseball slugger’s Like Babe Ruth and Hank Arron would envy.

The Lewis and Crok exposition – Climate less sensitive to Carbon Dioxide than most models suggest

Full papers plus additional comments from co-author Nic Lewis follow. I have added some relevant diagrams and tables from the report, plus reproduced the foreword by Dr. Judith Curry as well as updated the summary Equilibrium Climate Response Graph originally by Dr. Patrick Michaels to include this new ECS value and range. – Anthony


Figure 6: Transient climate response distribution for CMIP5 models
Models per AR5 Table 9.5. The bar heights show how many models in Table 9.5 exhibit each level of TCR.


The GCMs overestimate future warming by 1.7–2 times relative to an estimate
based on the best observational evidence.

Press Release

A new report published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation shows that the best observational evidence indicates our climate is considerably less sensitive to greenhouse gases than climate models are estimating.

The clues for this and the relevant scientific papers are all referred to in the recently published Fifth Assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, this important conclusion was not drawn in the full IPCC report – it is only mentioned as a possibility – and is ignored in the IPCC’s Summary for Policymakers (SPM).

For over thirty years climate scientists have presented a range for climate sensitivity (ECS) that has hardly changed. It was 1.5-4.5°C in 1979 and this range is still the same today in AR5.

Please click the link and go read the entire article over at Watt’s up with That…


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